150 Murders in Barbados by Year-End? Let’s Do the Math

Are We Really Heading for 150 Murders?

Recently, someone claimed on a popular social media platform that Barbados would see 150 murders by the end of 2025. This person also believed that this prediction is somehow linked to the country becoming a republic in 2021. That’s a interesting statement — but does the data support it? Let’s see…

As of July 16, 2025, my independent Barbados Homicide Database has recorded 30 murders for the year so far. That’s 198 days, from January 1 to today (Reminder: my numbers are based on what is reported in the media).

Doing a basic linear projection and basic arithmetic (or maths if you if prefer to call it that):

• 30 murders ÷ 198 days = ~0.1515 murders/day
  
• Multiply that by 365 days, and you get a projected total of ~55.2 murders for the full year

This assumes a steady, linear trend — in other words, that murders continue at the same average daily rate through the end of December 31. But we all know, or should know, that crime fluctuates seasonally or in response to major events, but the linear model gives us a useful baseline.

The Official View: 60 Murders Projected

Interestingly, the Criminal Justice Research Unit (CJR) also weighed in recently. In a public statement on July 5, a representative said:

“So far, for the month of June, we have had ten murders,” she said. “We are almost at 30 murders for the year. If we continue on this trajectory, based on trend analysis, we may experience as many as 60 homicides for the year. And that is something that, as Barbadians, as persons working with youth, we do not want to see.”

While my data shows 9 murders in June (based on media-reported incidents), the broader takeaway is this: both the official estimate and my independent tracking suggest a year-end total of around 55 to 60 murders — not 150.

What Would It Take to Hit 150?

To reach 150 murders by December 31:

• We’d need 120 more murders in the next 167 days
  
• That’s 0.714 murders/day, or nearly 5 murders per week

This would mean Barbados would need to quadruple its current murder rate and maintain that level without interruption.

Does being a Republic Have Anything to Do with It?

The person in the video argued that Barbados’ transition to a republic in 2021 will cause his prediction to come through (mind you the person never explains their calculation that got them to 150), but again, the data tells a different story, here’s the data for the years 2015 to present:

Reminder: My homicide data is not official, but represents a reasonable estimate based on media and official reports.

Clearly, there’s no direct correlation between republican status and homicides. The lowest post-republic year (2023) had just 19 murders—matching pre-republic 2016.

So while concerns about violent crime are valid, let’s not fall for sensational predictions without the data to back them up!