How Socially Close Are You to a Murder Victim in Barbados?

You may have heard about “six degrees of separation” — the idea that everyone is six steps away from everyone else (I first heard about it via the game “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon“) – but what happens when you apply that idea to a small island like Barbados, and in particular, to homicide victims?

How many degrees away am I from a murder victim? After a few prompts to ChatGPT, some iteration and editing, that’s what I’ll be answering in this article.

Related note: (1) Yes, I use ChatGPT and similar tools to help me with my blog posts. In particular, GenAI helps me to quickly explore and develop high level ideas, create drafts, and to edit and refine them. (2) These are back-of-the-envelope calculations, not a formal analysis. The goal is simply to illustrate how quickly human connections expand on a small island like Barbados.

Step 1: The Population

According to the World Bank, Barbados’ 2024 population is: 282,467 people. That’s the entire social network (so to speak).

Step 2: A Very Conservative Assumption

Let’s assume you are shy and don’t know many people. Let’s say You personally know only 50 people. Let’s also define “know”:

• You know them by name.
• You would recognize them in public.
• You could reasonably start a conversation without introduction.

No social media followers.
No “Oh, I’ve heard of them.”
Only real-world connections.

Keep in mind that 50 is conservative. Many people likely know far more than 50 people.

Step 3: Expanding Outward

Now let’s see how far your network reaches.

Degree 0

That’s You.

Degree 1

You directly know: 50 people.

Degree 2

Each of those 50 people knows 50 people.

If there were no overlap at all:

50 × 50 = 2,500 people.

But Barbados is small. People know each other. Networks overlap.

So let’s reduce that number.

Assume heavy overlap cuts it down to:

1,000 unique people within 2 degrees

Still conservative.

Degree 3

Now each of those 1,000 people knows 50 people.

1,000 × 50 = 50,000

Again, assume strong overlap.

Cut it in half.

That still gives us:

25,000 unique people within 3 degrees.

Degree 4

Now expand once more:

25,000 × 50 = 1,250,000

Even if 80% of that overlaps, you are still approaching or exceeding the entire population of Barbados.

Which means: By the fourth step, you are effectively connected to almost everyone.

What Does This Tell Us?

Even with conservative assumptions:

• You only know 50 people.
• There is heavy overlap in social circles.
• Expansion is aggressively discounted.

It likely takes only 3 to 4 degrees to connect you to almost anyone in Barbados.

So What About a Murder Victim?

If a murder victim is randomly located within the population:

• Some people will be 1 degree away (You personally know the murder victim).
• Many will be 2 degrees away (You don’t know the victim personally, but someone you do does).
• Most will likely be within 3 degrees (You don’t know the victim, nor does anyone you know directly, but someone connected to your acquaintance does).
• Very few will be 4 or more.

In simple terms:

You
→ someone you know
→ someone they know
→ victim

About three steps.

Why This Matters

On a small island, social distance collapses quickly. Most people on the island are about 3 human connections away from a murder (homicide) victim, even if they have a small social network. Each step multiplies reach, even when you account for overlap. In a population of 282,467, it does not take many human links before everyone is close to everyone else.

This may help explain something many people intuitively feel that on a small island, violence is rarely socially distant. It is almost always only a few human connections away.

Finally, this means that you are also about 3 human connections away from the person that committed the murder.